Caucasus
Wars
The
truth is buried by it's enemies, so you have to dig to find it.
To
save you having to read this entire editorial, here are the Cliff Notes:
Russia
is wrong.
The
US is wrong.
Georgia
is wrong.
(now
who did I overlook?)
"The first casualty of
war is truth" and this is more true today than ever before. The spin doctors
are making house calls worldwide on this one. It's impossible at this point
(August 21) to know all the details of what happened on the ground, but there
are some facts I think are certain. The US has been interfering, Russia has
been interfering, Georgia screwed up no matter who fired the first shot. Russia
was massing on the border for weeks if not months, with the "war games"
training they were hosting. They had the Back Sea fleet poised to respond.
The US has been arming and training Georgian forces for years. Georgia is
being a hypocrite to object to the Ossetia and Abkhazia independence movement
when they just had their Rose Revolution, and the mutual peacekeepers in both
Abkhazia and Ossetia were there to keep all this from happening. In the end
it just gave both sides a target. Here is an Ossetia timeline and
history from the Russian information agency, Novosti, going back
to 1991.
I
think the Rose and Orange revolutions were a legitimate expression of the
majority that don't want to be a part of the CIS except in trade. Russia only
wants all or none, so cut off gas, oil, electricity,
etc to Georgia after they threw out the installed puppet, Schverdnadze, just like they did
in Ukraine and Belarus. The Rose and Orange revolutions had everyone trying
to cheat, but in the end I think they represent the majority opinion in both
Georgia and Ukraine. The 500,000 people in the middle of Kiev for weeks were
not CIA dupes, just because the CIA saw the advantage of the changing out
the oligarchs, and interfered as much as possible. The US carried out
assassinations, Russia tried to kill Yushchenko with Dioxin, killed
a CIA agent who was with Shevardnadze's body guard, killed
Litvenenko and Patarkatsishvili, Yushchenko
won the runoff by 11%, but Russia and their puppet Kuchma, cheated the count,
the CIA paid for tents, food, websites, and flags for Independence Square,
and Big Oil funded some, Saakashvili went nuts
on an opposition rally, they're both playing the same games
in Belarus, etc., but I think both revolutions represent the legitimate
majority in spite of all the manipulations. Not perfect by any stretch, but
a majority. I think they are typical revolutionary changes in that they are
sloppy, ill conceived, tactically incompetent, desperate, orchestrated
by violent puppeteers in undemocratic ways, and supported by a host
of nefarious characters with which no ideological movement should ever associate,
but always do.
Putin
is a stalinist and medvedev is too, or he wouldn't be appointed to be paper
president. Not that NATO is legitimate in getting in the middle of ex-Warsaw
pact countries, but I do think the Rose and Orange Revolutions were a legitimate
representation of the will of the majority; not consensus, but the majority.
The CIA and KGB and Mossad interfered all over, and Russia had puppet oligarchs
in both countries, but the
move to install NATO and EU membership is too fast and obvious to
have any longevity, if they do it like they have, and that shows the basic
incompetence of the neocon stalinists.
They
aren't going to dock the 5th fleet on the Crimean peninsula where
the Russia fleet has ports.
Russia
and the US and NATO need to learn from this lesson that you can't force people
to be a part of a international alliance. Russia needs to learn that the soviet
empire is over and the possible economic "ties that bind" have, to a large
degree, been spoiled by the imperialist domination of people that never wanted
to be forced to join the union. The US should learn it's NOT just a matter
of which alliance; people neither want to be forced to be a part of the US/NATO/EU
alliance or CIS/Warsaw Pact Russian domination. Imperialism, for either reason,
is still the same fascist motivation and spoils the original ideology by association.
To paraphrase Dick Gregory, if the American system is so perfect, why do you
think you would have to shove it down people's throat with a gun? You wouldn't.
They'd steal it.
Problem
is that America is about as close to Democracy, as the Soviet Union was to
Socialism.
Everyone
just wants self determination without interference.
Just
like me.
Just
like you.
Just
like them.
One
problem is, that in this artificial big boys club, super-power, nuclear neighborhood,
bully's sandbox you have 2 choices for self defense: NATO or Russia/Warsaw
Pact, and if you are not a member of NATO, there will be tanks in your streets
sooner or later. If you're not protected by CIS non-aggression treaty, the
neocon stalinists will fly airstrikes on you at some point. This is all just
exactly what the neocons wanted to happen in Georgia, so they manipulated
this whole thing, probably with guarantees to Saakashvili of airstrikes. McCain was certainly
involved through Scheunemann, since his campaign "had motive and opportunity".
The neocons and Israel sold Georgia an amazing amount of arms since 1991,
but it's not enough to keep the 2 republics from leaving or Russia from coming
in, and it never would be. That's another place where these stalinists on
both sides don't get it. You can't force people into or out of alliances they
don't, or do, want to be part of. Even the former treasury assistant secretary
under Raygun, and father of the "Reaganomics", Paul Craig roberts sees the neocons as imperialist
hegemonists in this. I think he's right about this, but can't find anything
else with which I have ever agreed with him. He seems to be wearing his libertarian
hat on this, but his Reaganomics was the very same stalinist, trickle-down,
supply-side, military first, economic stimulation bullshit as putin and medvedev
and khrushchev would do, along with the neocons since Raygun.
NATO
was a cold-war, balance of power, "defense" organization and is now an offensive
imperialist organization, so wrong. Russia is still mad over loosing it's
military alliances of the USSR, but should be more concerned with
all the other trade they stand to loose, so they're wrong too. Russia
set another arms sale record in 2007, and where as some could be considered
to be defensive and reactions to neocon arms sales, all are not, and all are
not only an economic dependence of hatred and war for liquidity, but all harm
the possibility of free choice, association, and free will coalitions. If
socialism is such a great system they wouldn't need to force it down people's
throat with a gun.
They
would steal it.
These
republics were part of the bread basket of Russia to a great deal, and they
need a calm stable economic relationship with these nations. Problem is the
neocons keep buying regimes, changing regimes, propping up idiots, and placing
radar and missile installations as a quiet warfare tactic, and when the Russians
react, they are taking the bait and look like aggressors, like the Palestinians
firing useless rockets into Israel.
Abkhazia:
Both
Russia and Georgia want Abkhazia, as much as anything, because of all
the Black Sea coastline, but also for the
Kodori Gorge trade route over the Caucasus. It's more than half the coastline
that Georgia would control, and crucial Black Sea coastline Russia will not
control unless they can separate them from Georgia. This is all crazy because
all these fools need to do is work together for the trade and access and harmony
of the entire region, BUT when both sides decide it's a strategic, economic,
national security issue, then economics rules everything and the shooting
starts.
Socialist
or capitalist, economics rules everything and always has.
Ossetia
is just a political pawn to a large degree, but
Abkhazia is strategic and economic. It's also a favorite vacation
spot of Russian tourists. When Moscow installed Shevardnadze in
1992, the Georgian parliament decided to reinstall the Georgian constitution
of 1921, which does not mention Abkhaz. Mistake. The Abkhaz parliament reacted
by reinstalling their constitution from 1925 when Abkhazia was a Soviet republic.
Mistake. War followed and with Russian help, they drove out the Georgians
in September of 1993 and set up a UN sanctioned DMZ manned by Russian troops.
An explosive alliance, born of desperation.
Ossetia:
Ossetia
is one of the main
trade routes though the Caucasus (topo), starting with the natural
mountain pass there that was part of the Silk Road, and now with
the Roki Tunnel. The pipeline corridor
from Baku, Azerbaijan into Georgia, is the main cause for this. It's illogical
to make it so much longer than necessary to go down through Turkey, and not
just straight on to the Black Sea, but that's where the Russian fleet is still
stationed, and the Bosporus Straits are controlled by Turkey. This pipeline
corridor is squeezed between going through Russian controlled territory or
Iranian controlled territory, so the default battle ground. There are
pipelines that go straight to the Georgian coast, and Israel is involved in
hopes of a pipeline down through Turkey and into Israel and down to the Red
Sea, where they will resell it to the Asian market. The estimates of
how much oil is under the Caspian Sea doesn't impress me, but they're
fighting for every last drop. I don't see the Caspian Sea oil as solving anything
for very long, so we're ALL in a hideous fix, and the amount that China and
India will need is off the charts. The Israelis are in it for the money
from resale of the oil, and arms deals. They
have a pipeline contract with
Georgia to pipe oil over to them at Ashkelon, then down across occupied Palestine,
to the Red Sea at Eilat, then onto ships
for them to sell in Asia. Strictly middleman, since their little Uncle
Sam puppet will do their fighting for them. Their deals are with Georgia,
Turkey, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan, who is the most developed of the Caspian
states so far, thanx to their involvement starting
in 1992. If Israel could build a pipeline through Turkey or across
Syria, they could avoid the ships at the port of Ceyhan and
save tons. Down across Lebanon, even better. It's like Russia coming into
Canada or Mexico and starting to buy up oil we were counting on for future
years. All the industrial countries need an uninterrupted supply
for their economies and fuel for their militaries. Oil and arms are 2 sides
of the same teeter totter. Without both in balance, someone ends up on their
ass. All these economies, oligarchs, hegemonists, imperialists, stalinists,
neocons, and fascists need both to fund their plans for our lives.
The
latest installment of the Caucasus War is a continuation of the Caspian Sea Oil War that the
US got involved in by funding,
arming, and training the mujahadin and taliban, which got
the Russians to roll tanks in there. We've been propping up all manner of
reichwing nut jobs in "the Stans": Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Pakistan, Afghanistan,
and Azerbaijan, etc. and the Russians think this Georgian invasion will
send a message to them too, BUT the message is, in part, if you're
not a member of NATO, we'll roll tanks, so accept this artificial dichotomy
we're forcing on you and join one or the other.
Cold
warriors want a cold war. Stalinist, neocon, Russian, or American, they
need an enemy to focus on, manipulate their citizens, and use as an excuse.
Russia had all the regional control over Caspian/Caucasus oil and future
oil, but they've spoiled the stew with years of corrupt domination by Moscow. The
cold war is on again with US and Russia, with the addition of these Caspian Sea Proxy
Wars. Problem is the Russians are fed up and know that all that oil
is crucial to their economic survival. They're still a net exporter, so
need the hard currency that comes from selling it to Europe and Asia. They've
always been a net exporter, but it's because of all they drilled out of
the old soviet block countries, and if those go, it'll hurt their economy
and military funding.
The
US is certainly being an inciting, inflaming aggressor in manipulating "allies"
like Poland, that are still mad at all the soviet domination for 70 years,
so this latest
missile agreement with them will really hurt things. Problem is bush
thinks he'll bankrupt Russia like Raygun, BUT he's bankrupted us instead.
We're not in a position to do it now, and they are, because of the money
they've made in oil and we've lost on oil. These former warsaw pact players
may be mad at Russia for the Soviets, but they need them for trade and
economics. The US can't replace that, and will get them hurt or destroyed
trying. They'll lose economic trade ties that have supported them and
they won't be replaced by the US, so the promises are a lie.
Some
history:
It
doesn't.
Stalin
started all this then, and after WWII, Yalta made it worse. The Roki Tunnel
is the modern day Silk Road trade route through the Caucuses, which are the
natural boundary of Russia, but in the east west direction this is precisely
where the Muslims come in with the Persian-based languages, which is everyone
east of there. Just northeast of Georgia in Chechnya and Dagestan and Ingushetia,
the Russians have been ethnically cleansing the area since stalin,
but very much since the US started going after the Caspian Sea oil, during
Raygun. Yalta was a disaster here as elsewhere, and stalin
came back in in 1944 to further ethnically cleanse the entire area,
including the Caspian Sea littoral states, of non Russians. To a large degree
this is all a reconstitution and realignment of the Yalta false
alliances and spheres of influence those 3 decided for all of us, and much
of the heartache since in Croatia, Kosovo, Czecho-Slovakia, Poland, Latvia,
Lithuania, Estonia, Eastern Europe, and even in Persia, Iraq, Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait, and Palestine, has been the result of the post war insanity
of forced political alliances as spoils of war.
The
Future:
The
natural resources fight has been nasty but it's about to get worse. The
Russians sent a sub up last year to claim that the outer continental shelf
in the Arctic, that is now ice free, is theirs, and extends beyond the
200 mile economic exclusion zone. The US sent the USS Healy up last week
to do the same thing. The Russians actually planted a flag on the sea
floor 3 miles down. They two outer continental shelves
overlap in the Chukchi Sea, which is only about 200 miles
across from the US to Russia. Greenland and Canada and Norway and Denmark,
and Iceland have done the same thing. It'll be a battleground too. Here's a hi res territorial map,
that is bound to change. The Russians have half the Arctic territory up
there with Siberia. I don't see how anyone expects to battle those
sea ice-flows with an oil platform.
I
think the Russians have learned it's cheaper and has less political
problems if you fight proxy wars with other's troops, although that
hasn't worked entirely in Ossetia and Abkhazia like it has in Chechnya,
Ingushetia, "the Stans", and the Balkans. The CIA is certainly about
proxy wars, covert ops, and false flag ops, but the KGB derivative,
the FPS, has certainly enjoyed a lot of success with those tactics.
It all makes understanding what actually happened a long, torturous exercise.
Mark
Lewis